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Trader who inspired The Big Short and now bets against AI sends tech shares lower

BBC News

Shares of major technology companies have fallen over fears about the valuations of firms linked to the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Investors have grown increasing wary about what they are calling an AI bubble this year that has seen tech stock valuations hit record highs. Major indexes in Asia were the hardest hit on Wednesday, following a sell-off in the US. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.5%, dragged lower by tech investment giant, SoftBank, which plunged more than 10%. AI valuation concerns took hold in the US as well after it was revealed the trader who inspired The Big Short has bet $1.1bn (£840m) on a fall in prices for AI-related stocks Nvidia and Palantir.


AI 'godmother' Fei-Fei Li says she is 'proud to be different'

BBC News

AI'godmother' Fei-Fei Li says she is'proud to be different' The'godmother' of AI, Professor Fei-Fei Li has told the BBC that being the only woman amongst seven pioneers of artificial Intelligence being presented with a top engineering prize by the King today makes her proud to be different. The King will present the 2025 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering to Prof Li and six others during a ceremony at St James's Palace. Those honoured alongside her are Prof Yoshua Bengio, Dr Bill Dally, Dr Geoffrey Hinton, Prof John Hopfield, Nvidia founder Jensen Huang and Meta's Chief AI Scientist Dr Yann LeCun. They are being recognised for their contributions to the development of modern machine learning, a field that underpins the rapid advancement of AI. Who are the Godparents of AI? Dr Hinton, Prof Bengio and Yann LeCun, currently Chief AI Scientist at Meta have widely been recognised as the Godfathers of AI since they were jointly awarded the 2018 Turing Award.


SugarcaneShuffleNet: A Very Fast, Lightweight Convolutional Neural Network for Diagnosis of 15 Sugarcane Leaf Diseases

Arman, Shifat E., Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad, Sakib, Syed Nazmus, Saiem, RM, Asha, Shamima Nasrin, Hasan, Md Mehedi, Amin, Shahrear Bin, Abrar, S M Mahin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite progress in AI-based plant diagnostics, sugarcane farmers in low-resource regions remain vulnerable to leaf diseases due to the lack of scalable, efficient, and interpretable tools. Many deep learning models fail to generalize under real-world conditions and require substantial computational resources, limiting their use in resource-constrained regions. In this paper, we present SugarcaneLD-BD, a curated dataset for sugarcane leaf-disease classification; SugarcaneShuffleNet, an optimized lightweight model for rapid on-device diagnosis; and SugarcaneAI, a Progressive Web Application for field deployment. SugarcaneLD-BD contains 638 curated images across five classes, including four major sugarcane diseases, collected in Bangladesh under diverse field conditions and verified by expert pathologists. To enhance diversity, we combined SugarcaneLD-BD with two additional datasets, yielding a larger and more representative corpus. Our optimized model, SugarcaneShuffleNet, offers the best trade-off between speed and accuracy for real-time, on-device diagnosis. This 9.26 MB model achieved 98.02% accuracy, an F1-score of 0.98, and an average inference time of 4.14 ms per image. For comparison, we fine-tuned five other lightweight convolutional neural networks: MnasNet, EdgeNeXt, EfficientNet-Lite, MobileNet, and SqueezeNet via transfer learning and Bayesian optimization. MnasNet and EdgeNeXt achieved comparable accuracy to SugarcaneShuffleNet, but required significantly more parameters, memory, and computation, limiting their suitability for low-resource deployment. We integrate SugarcaneShuffleNet into SugarcaneAI, delivering Grad-CAM-based explanations in the field. Together, these contributions offer a diverse benchmark, efficient models for low-resource environments, and a practical tool for sugarcane disease classification. It spans varied lighting, backgrounds and devices used on-farm


Positive-Unlabeled Learning for Control Group Construction in Observational Causal Inference

Tsoumas, Ilias, Bormpoudakis, Dimitrios, Sitokonstantinou, Vasileios, Askitopoulos, Athanasios, Kalogeras, Andreas, Kontoes, Charalampos, Athanasiadis, Ioannis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In causal inference, whether through randomized controlled trials or observational studies, access to both treated and control units is essential for estimating the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. When treatment assignment is random, the average treatment effect (ATE) can be estimated directly by comparing outcomes between groups. In non-randomized settings, various techniques are employed to adjust for confounding and approximate the counterfactual scenario to recover an unbiased ATE. A common challenge, especially in observational studies, is the absence of units clearly labeled as controls-that is, units known not to have received the treatment. To address this, we propose positive-unlabeled (PU) learning as a framework for identifying, with high confidence, control units from a pool of unlabeled ones, using only the available treated (positive) units. We evaluate this approach using both simulated and real-world data. We construct a causal graph with diverse relationships and use it to generate synthetic data under various scenarios, assessing how reliably the method recovers control groups that allow estimates of true ATE. We also apply our approach to real-world data on optimal sowing and fertilizer treatments in sustainable agriculture. Our findings show that PU learning can successfully identify control (negative) units from unlabeled data based only on treated units and, through the resulting control group, estimate an ATE that closely approximates the true value. This work has important implications for observational causal inference, especially in fields where randomized experiments are difficult or costly. In domains such as earth, environmental, and agricultural sciences, it enables a plethora of quasi-experiments by leveraging available earth observation and climate data, particularly when treated units are available but control units are lacking.


Social Biases in Knowledge Representations of Wikidata separates Global North from Global South

Das, Paramita, Karnam, Sai Keerthana, Soni, Aditya, Mukherjee, Animesh

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Graphs have become increasingly popular due to their wide usage in various downstream applications, including information retrieval, chatbot development, language model construction, and many others. Link prediction (LP) is a crucial downstream task for knowledge graphs, as it helps to address the problem of the incompleteness of the knowledge graphs. However, previous research has shown that knowledge graphs, often created in a (semi) automatic manner, are not free from social biases. These biases can have harmful effects on downstream applications, especially by leading to unfair behavior toward minority groups. To understand this issue in detail, we develop a framework -- AuditLP -- deploying fairness metrics to identify biased outcomes in LP, specifically how occupations are classified as either male or female-dominated based on gender as a sensitive attribute. We have experimented with the sensitive attribute of age and observed that occupations are categorized as young-biased, old-biased, and age-neutral. We conduct our experiments on a large number of knowledge triples that belong to 21 different geographies extracted from the open-sourced knowledge graph, Wikidata. Our study shows that the variance in the biased outcomes across geographies neatly mirrors the socio-economic and cultural division of the world, resulting in a transparent partition of the Global North from the Global South.


Farmer.Chat: Scaling AI-Powered Agricultural Services for Smallholder Farmers

Singh, Namita, Wang'ombe, Jacqueline, Okanga, Nereah, Zelenska, Tetyana, Repishti, Jona, K, Jayasankar G, Mishra, Sanjeev, Manokaran, Rajsekar, Singh, Vineet, Rafiq, Mohammed Irfan, Gandhi, Rikin, Nambi, Akshay

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Small and medium-sized agricultural holders face challenges like limited access to localized, timely information, impacting productivity and sustainability. Traditional extension services, which rely on in-person agents, struggle with scalability and timely delivery, especially in remote areas. We introduce Farmer.Chat, a generative AI-powered chatbot designed to address these issues. Leveraging Generative AI, Farmer.Chat offers personalized, reliable, and contextually relevant advice, overcoming limitations of previous chatbots in deterministic dialogue flows, language support, and unstructured data processing. Deployed in four countries, Farmer.Chat has engaged over 15,000 farmers and answered over 300,000 queries. This paper highlights how Farmer.Chat's innovative use of GenAI enhances agricultural service scalability and effectiveness. Our evaluation, combining quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, highlights Farmer.Chat's effectiveness in improving farming practices, enhancing trust, response quality, and user engagement.


SELECTOR: Heterogeneous graph network with convolutional masked autoencoder for multimodal robust prediction of cancer survival

Pan, Liangrui, Peng, Yijun, Li, Yan, Wang, Xiang, Liu, Wenjuan, Xu, Liwen, Liang, Qingchun, Peng, Shaoliang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately predicting the survival rate of cancer patients is crucial for aiding clinicians in planning appropriate treatment, reducing cancer-related medical expenses, and significantly enhancing patients' quality of life. Multimodal prediction of cancer patient survival offers a more comprehensive and precise approach. However, existing methods still grapple with challenges related to missing multimodal data and information interaction within modalities. This paper introduces SELECTOR, a heterogeneous graph-aware network based on convolutional mask encoders for robust multimodal prediction of cancer patient survival. SELECTOR comprises feature edge reconstruction, convolutional mask encoder, feature cross-fusion, and multimodal survival prediction modules. Initially, we construct a multimodal heterogeneous graph and employ the meta-path method for feature edge reconstruction, ensuring comprehensive incorporation of feature information from graph edges and effective embedding of nodes. To mitigate the impact of missing features within the modality on prediction accuracy, we devised a convolutional masked autoencoder (CMAE) to process the heterogeneous graph post-feature reconstruction. Subsequently, the feature cross-fusion module facilitates communication between modalities, ensuring that output features encompass all features of the modality and relevant information from other modalities. Extensive experiments and analysis on six cancer datasets from TCGA demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both modality-missing and intra-modality information-confirmed cases. Our codes are made available at https://github.com/panliangrui/Selector.


Old Macdonald had a robot: Driverless tractors appear on farms

#artificialintelligence

Soon, however, the sight of tractor and farmer hard at work together, preparing the land and harvesting the crops, may be as out of date as the horse-drawn plough from the age of Robert Burns. For the age-old relationship of man, machine and land is set to be broken with the arrival in Scotland of the first fleet of robot tractors. Driverless'Agbot' tractors, due to arrive in Scotland within weeks, have been described as a gamechanger for agriculture, with the ability to work solo, 24-hours a day and to precise standards – raising the potential that they can help solve a crippling labour shortage crisis which has left farmers and growers scrabbling for staff. Because they are significantly lighter than a traditional tractor – and, as hybrid vehicles, use less diesel - they are also being touted as a greener option, offering a solution to soil compaction caused by huge vehicles which trample the land and which can lead to flooding, degradation and lower yields. While, by freeing up time that would normally be spent in the driver's seat, the vehicles – programmable several months in advance - allow farm staff to concentrate on other areas of increasingly diversified businesses, such as running farm shops, tourist accommodation and food production.


Here Are 3 Big Areas Where AI Is Cropping Up In Agtech

#artificialintelligence

While Silicon Valley has transformed every industry from health care to banking, agriculture has remained largely untouched -- until now. Ever since OpenAI's breakthrough with ChatGPT, the term AI has been thrown around so many times it's starting to lose its meaning. Nevertheless, artificial intelligence has seeped into every industry from enterprise software to autonomous vehicles, taking around 10% of global venture dollars in 2022. Grow your revenue with all-in-one prospecting solutions powered by the leader in private-company data. Agriculture has not been immune to the AI revolution that has gripped the tech world.


Evaluating Digital Agriculture Recommendations with Causal Inference

Tsoumas, Ilias, Giannarakis, Georgios, Sitokonstantinou, Vasileios, Koukos, Alkiviadis, Loka, Dimitra, Bartsotas, Nikolaos, Kontoes, Charalampos, Athanasiadis, Ioannis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of smart farming tools. While AI-driven digital agriculture tools can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, they lack tangible quantitative evidence on their benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly, time consuming and hence limited in scope and scale of application. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators (e.g., yield in this case). This way, we can increase farmers' trust via enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market and accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to secure farmer income resilience and global agricultural sustainability. As a case study, we designed and implemented a recommendation system for the optimal sowing time of cotton based on numerical weather predictions, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We then leverage agricultural knowledge, collected yield data, and environmental information to develop a causal graph of the farm system. Using the back-door criterion, we identify the impact of sowing recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using linear regression, matching, inverse propensity score weighting and meta-learners. The results reveal that a field sown according to our recommendations exhibited a statistically significant yield increase that ranged from 12% to 17%, depending on the method. The effect estimates were robust, as indicated by the agreement among the estimation methods and four successful refutation tests. We argue that this approach can be implemented for decision support systems of other fields, extending their evaluation beyond a performance assessment of internal functionalities.